Global carbon emissions remained at record levels in 2022, with no sign of the reductions urgently needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, the Global Carbon Project‘s science team says.
At current emissions levels, there is a 50% chance that 1.5°C global warmings will be exceeded within nine years.
The new report projects total CO2 emissions (GtCO2) in 2022 at 40.6 billion tons. This increase is fueled by fossil CO2 emissions, projected to increase by 1.0% compared to 2021, reaching 36.6 GtCO2. This is slightly higher than 2019 values before COVID-19. Emissions from land use changes (e.g., deforestation) are projected to reach 3.9 GtCO2 in 2022.
Projections for emissions from coal and oil are above the levels in 2021. Oil makes the most significant contribution to total emissions growth. This increase in oil emissions can largely be explained by the international aviation sector rebounding after COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
The 2022 picture for significant sources of spillovers is mixed: Spreads are projected to fall in China (0.9%) and the EU (0.8%) while rising in the US (1.5%) and India (6%). In the rest of the world, there is an increase of 1.7%.
With a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the carbon budget has fallen to 380 GtCO2 (exceeded in nine years if emissions remain at 2022 levels). At a two °C limit, it is 1230 GtCO2 (30 years at 2022 emissions levels).
To reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050, a reduction of around 1.4 GtCO2 per year will now be required. This amount, similar to the decrease observed in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 lockdowns, shows the scale of the challenge.
Land and oceans, which absorb and store carbon, continue to take up about half of the CO2 emissions. CO2 sinks in the ocean and on land are still rising in response to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. But climate change is estimated to reduce this growth by 4% (ocean sinks) and 17% (land sinks) over the ten-year period 2012-2021.
This year’s carbon budget shows a slowdown in the long-term pace of increasing fossil emissions. While the average rise peaked in the 2000s at +3% per year, the increase over the last decade has been around 0.5% on an annual basis.